diff_of_means ratio_of_sd monthly_amplitude_ratio_of_means ks_mean_on_coarse_res_with_extremes qqplot_mae acf_mae extremogram_mae
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 1.43% 0.790 0.847 0.232 7.561 0.132 0.019
cnn.cesm2.ssp585 -2.03% 0.781 0.836 0.160 6.446 0.027 0.026
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 -2.27% 0.723 0.785 0.126 7.971 0.038 0.024
lstm.cesm2.ssp585 -2.65% 0.799 0.810 0.165 5.157 0.025 0.029
lstm.cesm2.ssp370 -3.05% 0.813 0.803 0.109 4.818 0.029 0.024
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -3.17% 0.816 0.850 0.198 6.919 0.155 0.025
lstm.cesm2.ssp245 -3.44% 0.816 0.811 0.187 4.681 0.025 0.022
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 -3.44% 0.780 0.801 0.112 5.722 0.035 0.021
cnn.cesm2.ssp370 -3.51% 0.800 0.828 0.174 6.115 0.031 0.022
cnn.cesm2.ssp245 -3.62% 0.823 0.875 0.179 5.755 0.029 0.027
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -4.64% 0.739 0.799 0.075 7.756 0.058 0.034
cnn.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -5.98% 0.738 0.793 0.187 7.585 0.037 0.023
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 -6.25% 0.776 0.784 0.182 5.980 0.041 0.020
lstm.ec_earth3.ssp434 -6.33% 0.874 0.856 0.219 3.699 0.023 0.026
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 6.57% 0.851 0.820 0.321 5.274 0.040 0.023
cnn.ec_earth3.ssp434 -6.88% 0.802 0.864 0.232 5.941 0.030 0.019
nv.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -7.00% 0.821 0.883 0.181 6.921 0.117 0.021
xgboost.cesm2.ssp245 -7.04% 0.791 0.795 0.227 5.990 0.031 0.021
lstm.mri_esm2_0.ssp370 -7.66% 0.782 0.798 0.264 5.987 0.023 0.024
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp434 9.10% 0.829 0.803 0.250 6.402 0.056 0.042
xgboost.cesm2.ssp585 -9.44% 0.778 0.780 0.224 6.753 0.031 0.020
xgboost.cesm2.ssp370 -9.62% 0.774 0.773 0.176 6.883 0.033 0.022
xgboost.mri_esm2_0.ssp245 13.19% 0.830 0.812 0.306 7.938 0.042 0.028
nv.cesm2.ssp245 -21.42% 0.830 0.882 0.272 10.557 0.060 0.019
xgboost.ec_earth3.ssp434 -23.42% 0.759 0.758 0.423 11.728 0.078 0.036
nv.cesm2.ssp370 -24.55% 0.841 0.885 0.195 12.067 0.063 0.026
nv.cesm2.ssp585 -25.09% 0.828 0.909 0.107 12.330 0.054 0.022
nv.ec_earth3.ssp434 -32.87% 0.783 0.846 0.292 16.156 0.070 0.024

Time series of the first days

Distribution of daily values by month

QQ Plot

Distribution of the undownscaled value on days with estimated extremes values.

On the x-axis we have the daily mean (standardized). It says Undownscaled value, but is the daily mean after the downscaling. A good idea is to plot the original undownscaled value.

The purpose of this plot is to illustrate the distribution of P(undownscaled value | we predicted an extreme). This is useful because it reveals how much information we can recover concerning extreme events. If the distribution is skewed to the right, it suggests that we’re predicting extreme values only when extreme values have already occurred. Conversely, if the lower tail of the distribution resembles the reanalysis data, it indicates that we can capture short-duration extremes (e.g., brief periods of heavy rainfall, such as an intense downpour lasting an hour before stopping).

Autocorrelogram

Extremogram